Threatening times and the election of charismatic US presidents: With and without FDR

Abstract

Two hypotheses based on Max Weber's (1968) notion that charismatic leaders emerge in times of crisis were examined: Winning charismatic presidential candidates are more likely to win during threatening election years, and winning charismatic presidential candidates are more likely to have a higher margin of victory during threatening election years. Several derived predictions were tested with correlational and multiple regression strategies. Historians' judgments of the level of social, economic, and political threat for election years (McCann, 1996), charismatic style scores for the presidents (Simonton, 1988), popular vote data, and electoral vote data were used, and support was found for both hypotheses. However, subsequent analyses revealed that statistical support for the predictions vanished when the Franklin D. Roosevelt (FDR) elections were excluded because Roosevelt's supreme charismatic style was coupled with an extended period of unusually high societal threat. Nevertheless, it is concluded that it would be unwise to unequivocally infer that the two hypotheses were not supported.